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Golfstat's Head-to-Head Standings Explanation Presentation of the Standings Explanation TO BE ELIGIBLE FOR H-T-H STANDINGS (2 Requirements):
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE CALCULATION: Strength of schedule is determined by the team adjusted scoring average of a schools opponents. The adjusted scoring average of those opponents has an additional adjustment component for this calculation based upon the minimum rounds played by the opponent compared to the current minimum rounds required for a Division 1 school. Any opponent not having played that required minimum number of rounds will have their adjusted scoring average adjusted upward. HEAD-TO-HEAD STANDINGS CALCULATION: Every school that has met the eligibility requirement is compared head to head against every other school in their Division (i.e. 1, 2, 3, NAIA, or JCAA Divisions). In determining which school gets the “Win” in the head to head comparison a filtering decision making process is used. NOTE: In any comparison where teams have actually played, strokes are pro-rated to a per round basis.st. FILTER 1 - Head to Head competition. If the two schools have not played, go to FILTER 2: To verify the determination at this point, all Level 1 Common Opponents are also taken into consideration including the Common Opponents from when they played. A Level 1 Common Opponent is a School that both teams have competed against. If the School that is down Head-to-Head has a certain percentage of common opponents in their favor, the determination is reversed. This is known as the "Fluke Factor". If Schools have played 1 time this percentage is 53%. If they have played twice it is 60%. If they have played 3 times or more the percentage is 67%. It is figured as follows: 1/2 point is given for the School that is up or down on wins and losses to the common opponent. If they are both either up or down, the 1/2 point is divided. It does not matter how many times they have played. In other words if School A is 5-1 against Common Opponent C and School B is 1-0 against Common Opponent C, they are both up on Common Opponent C. The other 1/2 point is given to the School that has the better average stroke differential against the common opponent. FILTER 2 - Adjusted Stroke Average: This is a quick look that only makes a determination for one school over the other if the difference in adjusted stroke average makes the determination statistically obvious. This is not used for Division 1 NCAA Men. FILTER 3 - Common Opponents: Any common opponents (Division 1, 2, 3, NAIA, or JCAA) are used to make the determination. Both Level 1 and Level 2 Common Opponents are used to determine the percentage of Common Opponents a team is up. The Level 1 Common Opponents are figured the same way they are in Filter 1. A Level 2 Common Opponent is where the comparison is between School A and School B. School A has played School C, but not School D. School B has played School D, but not School C. However, Schools C and D have played each other. Each of these comparisons is worth 1/2 of a point, but only Stroke Differential is used since there is no logical way in this mulit-level comparison to deal with the various Wins and Losses. Since the Level 2 Opponents and sub-opponents of the C and D Schools can be different, the comparison is viewed from both the perspective of School A as well as the perspective of School B. Between School A and B, the School with the highest percentage of points is the winner of the comparison. FILTER 6 - FINAL FILTER - Combination of Adjusted Stroke Average, Strength of Schedule, and Average Drop Score are used. At this point, the comparisons to this point have either been too close to call or non-existent. It should be noted that in the early Fall Season it is not uncommon for this filter to be used often. However, by the end of the Spring, it is uses less than 1 tenth of 1 percent of the time (00.06%). When using this filter there is not a weighting system. It is based upon how much one School is up on each catgegory over the other School. The Schools could be tied after this filter, but that probability is less than the previously mentioned probability. EXPLANATION OF THE PRESENTATION OF THE STANDINGS: Since this Ranking is referred to as and handled like a Standing, the main presentation is in the form of a won-loss record. Anytime you see one of the presentations that show both a Division and a Region Standing, note that those standings only relate to that particular universe. Therefore, the following hypothetical relationship is possible: Assume that you had a Division with 100 schools and 10 Regions within that division that had 10 schools each. It is possible for a school to be 91-9 in the Division and be towards the top (and certainly ahead of every school in their Region) of that Division universe. However, all 9 of their “losses” could be against the other 9 schools in their Region universe and they could be 0-9 and in last place behind all of the Region Schools in that universe even though they are ahead of all of those schools in the Division universe. I have never seen that particular hypothetical scenario take place, but I often see movement where schools can be ahead of other schools in their Region universe, yet behind them in the Division universe. Admittedly, this seem illogical, but the main use of these standings are for the NCAA, NAIA and JCAA to use in their determination of post season participants. Therefore, those situations are very helpful as yellow flags where the system is not in perfect alignment. Those “yellow flags” are the system telling the selection people to ask why and take a deeper look at those situations that involve “bubble teams”. Let me editorialize here briefly: No matter what ANYONE tells you, ALL SYSTEMS have potential to produce results that would create yellow flags. Golfstat’s H-T-H Standings are the only one that points those situations out to aid in the selection process. This is precisely why I have always told the NCAA, NAIA, and JCAA that what Golfstat does is produce good analytical data for humans to make good analytical decisions. Furthermore, I always tell the associations that they should never go away from having humans make decisions because there are always situations that are created during the season that cannot be “perfectly” accommodated by any model. With all of that said, Golfstat’s H-T-H Standings is the only model that uses 100% of the official data and also the only model that uses totally accurate data. Web Page and EMAIL Coach’s Reports Presentation: The first column after the school name, Division Standing, is the won-loss record for each school based upon the head to head filter previously explained. Notice that every teams total of competitions (wins and losses) is equal to the number of schools shown minus themselves. Any school that has an N/E to the left of their name is not eligible for NCAA post season play. NAIA does not even list schools not eligible for post season play. Adjusted Scoring Average: Is the average score of the counting scores, adjusted for conditions (see explanation of adjusted scoring). Adjusted Scoring is a more relevant base of comparison than the raw scoring numbers. Average Drop Score: Is the average score of the non-counting scores, adjusted for conditions. Versus Top 25: This shows what the Division Standing Record is for those schools listed in the Top 25 of the Standings that this particular school has actually played. Remember that a school can actually have played another school and beaten them, but still have a loss in the filter system should other data overwhelmingly overturn that competition. Rank of Schedule: This shows the rank of schedule for this school based upon the explanation listed before. Rank of schedule embodies all NCAA Division 1, 2, 3, and NAIA Schools. Wins: This shows the number of wins for this school in events that they have played where there were at least 5 schools competing. Remember that the system ignores any school that is not affiliated with the NCAA, NAIA, or JCAA. Eligible Tournaments OFFICIALLY REPORTED and used at Run Date: This shows how many tournaments that are registered and scheduled to be completed at the run date have turned in their results and those results have been accepted as OFFICIAL by Golfstat according to the various rules stipulated by either the NCAA, NAIA, or JCAA. Selection Committee Presentation: The first column after the school name, REG., shows the Region that school plays in. Division Standing, is the won-loss record for each school based upon the head to head filter previously explained. Notice that every teams total of competitions (wins and losses) is equal to the number of schools shown minus themselves. Any school that has an N/E to the left of their name is not eligible for NCAA post season play. NAIA does not even list schools not eligible for post season play. Reg. Rank (or Div. Rank if looking at a Regional Printout), shows that schools ranking in the standings for the nest column to the right which will show the Region Standings (or Division if looking at a Regional Printout). These two standings columns shown together can show (especially when looking at a Regional Printout) those yellow flags that were discussed earlier. Adjusted Scoring Average: Is the average score of the counting scores, adjusted for conditions (see explanation of adjusted scoring). Adjusted Scoring is a more relevant base of comparison than the raw scoring numbers. Average Drop Score: Is the average score of the non-counting scores, adjusted for conditions. Versus Division Top 25: This shows what the Division Standing Record is for those schools listed in the Top 25 of the Standings that this particular school has actually played. Remember that a school can actually have played another school and beaten them, but still have a loss in the filter system should other data overwhelmingly overturn that competition. Versus Division 26-50: Same explanation as above using the next 25 schools. Versus Region Top 10: Same explanation as above using Top 10 schools in Region. Versus Region 11-20: Same explanation as above using next 10 schools. Rank of Schedule: This shows the rank of schedule for this school based upon the explanation listed before. Wins: This shows the number of wins for this school in events that they have played where there were at least 5 schools competing. Remember that the system ignores any school that is not affiliated with the NCAA, NAIA, or JCAA.
Golfstat, Inc.
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